News
Update: February 2013
Frederick S. Pardee Center forecasts a productive year ahead
The Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures has an exciting year ahead. We’ll be releasing the last two volumes in our Patterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) series. The fourth volume, on infrastructure, will be released this spring, and the fifth and final volume, on governance, will be available by the fall. In addition to our own team members who have worked diligently on the PPHP series for the past several years, we’d like to thank Frederick S. Pardee for his continued support and involvement.
Our team also has several other projects that we hope to advance this year. We plan to continue working in Peru with CEPLAN, Peru’s national strategy center, as it develops its Peru 2050 project, and with Oxfam America on its agricultural futures project there. Additionally, we intend to expand upon our training workshops and forecasting projects for the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) and the African Union Commission. Our team is also moving forward with the Western Cape provincial government in South Africa, further embedding and enhancing the IFs provincial model across their government. This includes sending our center’s research assistants to help with development of the model and additional government capacity-building throughout the year. In addition, the Pardee Center will continue collaborating with the SENS Foundation to explore the possible implications of low-senescence aging.
Finally, for the sake of increased transparency and openness, we’ll be making some major updates in our online presence this next year. The Frederick S. Pardee Center will be launching a new website to display the center’s work and the IFs model itself. We’ll also be making important changes to our IFs help system as we push to provide more extensive model documentation for our current and potential IFs system users.
For the most recent updates on our progress, make sure to follow us on Twitter (@pardeecenterifs) or subscribe to our Facebook page (facebook.com/pardeecenter).
Barry Hughes presents on Global Trends 2030 at Josef Korbel School
On Wednesday, January 30, Pardee Center Director Barry Hughes gave a presentation for Korbel students and faculty on the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report. In addition to explaining the global implications of the megatrends, “gamechangers” and potential world scenarios outlined by the report’s authors, Barry highlighted the contributions of International Futures to the report. The event was a great opportunity for those unfamiliar with International Futures to learn about the system’s forecasting capabilities and global impact. The Pardee Center plans to host more discussions on the system and the IFs team’s far-reaching contributions later this year. You’ll be able to find an audio recording of the Global Trends 2030 event and announcements for future events on our Facebook page. We hope you’ll join us next time!
Updates on “Diplometrics” project
The Pardee Center’s team of research assistants has made significant progress on its data collection of “diplometrics,” which include a variety of diplomacy measures. The team, so far, has compiled four different databases. One measures the number and location of foreign embassies by country over time. Another shows each country’s involvement in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). We will also have a database on each country’s voluntary contributions to the UN as well as one on the UN’s professional staff. Our RAs are now carefully vetting the data, and these databases should be ready to integrate into the IFs system soon. Our team hopes to collect additional data on diplomacy throughout the year, including measures of bilateral alliances, staff and budget contributions to all international organizations, and on issues related to measuring sovereignty.
IFs team featured in Huffington Post and New Atlanticist blogs
Please check out our team’s recent articles to learn more about our work and our suggestions for policymakers. Interim Associate Director Jonathan Moyer wrote two pieces for The Huffington Post. The first, published in early January, discusses the changes in global power dynamics and expands on our forecasts for the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report. His second piece outlines five major global trends that President Obama’s new cabinet should address this term. Research Assistant Hanna Camp, who recently interned with the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative, also published a piece on global aging, “Glimpses of a Graying World,” which is featured on the New Atlanticist blog.
Jonathan Moyer presents at the Highland City Club
On Wednesday, January 16, Interim Associate Director Jonathan Moyer spoke at the Highland City Club’s International Affairs Lunch. His presentation, titled “The World in 2050 and Beyond: A Look into the ‘Futures,’” highlighted major global trends and focused on key developments in demographics and energy worldwide. He was happy to share the center’s work with an audience full of “incredibly interesting” and accomplished people. The luncheon was hosted by Peg Sanders, who served as former deputy chief of the CIA and adjunct professor at the Korbel School of International Studies, and her husband Ed Sanders.
IFs team welcomes new RAs
The International Futures team was happy to bring on three more research assistants to help with our additional work this year. Sara Turner, Alison Burt and Steve Hedden are all M.A. candidates at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. They will be working primarily on the center’s data projects, helping to expand and update the vast International Futures database.
ISS ranked #2 in Sub-Saharan Africa think tanks
Our African Futures Project partner, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), headquartered in Pretoria, South Africa, was given the second highest spot in the University of Pennsylvania International Relations Program’s annual rankings of think tanks in Sub-Saharan Africa. ISS also ranked 47th worldwide among non-U.S. think tanks and 40th among think tanks with outstanding policy-oriented research programs. We congratulate the ISS and wish them continued success!
Send us your feedback and forecast ideas
We’d love to hear from you! As we work to expand our center’s capabilities, we’d appreciate your suggestions. What could we improve? What variables or issue areas would you like us to see us forecast? Feel free to get in touch by E-mail (pardee.center@du.edu) or via social media.