News
Update: November 2012
IFs team trains officials from NEPAD and African Union Commission
From November 26-30, several members of the International Futures team gathered in Cape Town, South Africa, to teach top officials from the African Union Commission (AUC) and its New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) to use the IFs global forecasting system. Pardee Center Interim Associate Director Jonathan Moyer, as well as graduate assistants Mickey Rafa and Carey Neill, spent the week in Cape Town to provide participants with a hands-on introduction to the model and its potential applications for their own strategic policy planning. Moving forward, we hope that with our help, NEPAD might use IFs to consider reasonable policy alternatives and set development targets in the post-2015 environment. Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki, NEPAD’s chief executive officer, has already expressed a desire to use the IFs system in the agency’s future work. “This is a great tool that will help us implement our value of ownership,” he posted via Twitter. He later added, “Our cooperation with [the Institute of Security Studies] and the Pardee Center will help us better think about Africa's transformation with a long term vision.”
African Futures Project launches “Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication”
The African Futures Project has just launched its latest quarterly policy brief titled, “Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication,” which is co-authored by the Pardee Center’s Interim Associate Director Jonathan Moyer and Research Assistant Graham Emde. The brief explores what would happen in Africa if malaria were completely eradicated by 2025. After comparing this alternative scenario with the International Futures base case, the authors found that such an achievement could eliminate 12 million deaths from malaria and add more than 50 million years of healthy life on the continent. The added production by healthy Africans could also increase overall economic output by as much as $430 billion and raise annual per capita income among Africans by more than $30 by 2050. Not to mention, the eradication of malaria could limit the amount of people living in extreme poverty ($1.25 per day or less) by roughly 2.5 million by 2050. For more information and to read the brief in its entirety, please visit the African Futures Project website or follow @pardeecenterifs and @africanfutures on Twitter for more updates.
Career updates from former Pardee Center graduate assistants
Former Research Assistant Eric Firnhaber is working in Washington, DC, at Fintrac as a communications specialist for the USAID-Enabling Agricultural Trade (EAT) project. The EAT project analyzes the legal, regulatory, and institutional environments for the agricultural sector in the nations where the USAID works. Likewise, its experts make recommendations to help nations increase agricultural productivity and foster growth. Eric manages the project’s external communications, working heavily with USAID and its in-country partners worldwide. His past work as co-author of the African Futures Project policy brief on green revolution helped him develop the writing and publishing skills, as well as an interest in food security, that he says are now key to his current position at Fintrac.
Former Research Assistant Patrick McLennan has a new job as a transfer pricing consultant at Ernst & Young in Seattle. He will help Ernst & Young’s client companies, including major household brands such as Google, Amazon, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola, to develop transfer pricing strategies and to better understand regulations in the tax jurisdictions in which they trade. He will have the opportunity to assist Ernst & Young offices around the world in improving their transfer pricing practices. Patrick worked with the African Futures Project in Denver and as a visiting consultant in Cape Town, South Africa, where he also gained an expertise in transfer pricing as part of his Master’s thesis.
Former Research Assistant Mark Eshbaugh is a 2012 Presidential Management Fellow at the U.S. Department of Energy in Washington, DC. He works as an economist and energy analyst in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Office of International Energy Analysis. Mark has been able to transfer his knowledge of global forecasting to his work at the EIA, where he is responsible for creating short-term energy forecasts and regional and country-level analysis, primarily in the Middle East and Africa. He also conducts ad-hoc analysis across a broad range of other energy issues.
Pardee Center representatives meet with CEPLAN in Peru
Earlier in November, the Pardee Center’s Director Barry Hughes and Associate José Solórzano visited Peru’s National Center for Strategic Planning (CEPLAN) to provide two days of training and capacity building on the International Futures system. CEPLAN, which reports directly to the country’s president and prime minister, hopes to embed IFs into its long-term development efforts, including a study on Peru in 2050. The organization chose to use the IFs model in particular after comparing its merits to other forecasting tools worldwide. During his stay, Barry also gave a Peru-focused presentation on IFs forecasting to roughly 400 people from government, the private sector, academia, and civil society. He anticipates the development of a long-term working relationship with CEPLAN in the years to come.
