News
Update: July 2011
Inside the IFs Model: What’s New?
Version 6.43 of the International Futures model is now available by request. The major changes in the new version are additional data series and model extensions focusing on infrastructure and governance, as we push ahead on work for those next two volumes of the PPHP series.
Two other major model initiatives are underway. First, the availability of recent essential data is allowing us to rebase the initial IFs forecast year to 2009 or 2010 from the model’s current (and now quite outdated) 2005 base year. The rebased version of the model should be available in the fall.
Second, we are placing a heavy focus on improving the Web-based version of IFs over the coming months. We plan to post a new Web version of the model during August (we haven’t updated the Web version since we posted Version 6.32 in June 2010). In addition, we are in the final stages of purchasing a new server that will enable both faster run speeds and more simultaneous online users of the model. We are also exploring new graphical tools to improve the look and feel of the graphics produced by the model. Future newsletters will keep you posted on the status of these efforts.
National Center for Atmospheric Research Meeting
Three representatives from the Pardee Center (Barry B. Hughes, Dale S. Rothman and Jonathan D. Moyer) attended sessions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) workshop in July. The representatives from the Pardee Center participated in a panel on planning for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report to be published in 2014. Additional presentations explored the relationship between education, urbanization, and carbon emissions.
Pardee IFs Center Director Travels to South Africa
Barry Hughes traveled to South Africa during July to participate in a week of workshops focused on long term policy planning. The events were hosted by the Pan-African think-tank, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). One day of meetings involved participants from the European Commission’s Institute for Security Studies, and another took place at the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO, the foreign ministry). Other days were with personnel of the ISS, with whom the Pardee IFs Center has ongoing projects. The UK’s Department for International Development has recently committed funding for future work of the ISS and Pardee IFs Center with DIRCO.
On his way home from South Africa, Barry spent two days in Washington, D.C. He met with the leadership of the National Intelligence Council’s forthcoming Global Trends 2030 report (to which Pardee IFs will contribute) and participated in a conference at the Atlantic Council looking ahead to US foreign policy in 2030.
National Intelligence Council, RAND and Measuring National Power
Also in July, Jonathan D. Moyer presented at a National Intelligence Council and RAND joint-sponsored workshop exploring how to measure and forecast national power over the next 20 years. This workshop was coordinated in conjunction with demands arising from the forthcoming Global Trends 2030 publication to be delivered to the US president in January of 2013. In conjunction with Washington, D.C. based partners, in the near future IFs will also be launching the results of a new measure of national power.