Further Information
What is International Futures - in Detail?
International Futures (IFs) is a large-scale integrated global modeling system. The broad purpose of IFs is to serve as a thinking tool for the analysis of long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures across multiple, interacting issue areas.
Thinking Tool for a Global Future
IFs is heavily data-based and also deeply rooted in theory. It represents major agent-classes (households, governments, firms) interacting in a variety of global structures (demographic, economic, social, and environmental). The system draws upon standard approaches to modeling specific issue areas whenever possible, extending those as necessary and integrating them across issue areas.
The menu-driven interface of the software system allows for the display of results from the base case and from alternative scenarios over time horizons from 2005 up to 2100. It provides tables, standard graphical formats, and a basic Geographic Information System (GIS) or mapping capability. It also provides specialized display formats for age-cohort demographic structures and social accounting matrices.
Scenarios that Change the World
The system facilitates scenario development via a scenario-tree that simplifies changes in framing assumptions and agent-class interventions. Scenarios can be saved for development and refinement over time. Standard framing scenarios, such as those from the United Nations Environment Programme's GEO 3/4 are available.
The modeling system also provides access to an extensive database for longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis. Insofar as possible, data represent 183 countries since 1960. In addition to providing a basis for developing formulations within the model, the database facilitates comparison of data with "historic forecasts" over the 1960-2005 period.
By far the most extensive documentation is available in the Help System of IFs itself. That includes full documentation through causal diagrams, equations, and computer code.